Key points
- Tories 'facing electoral extinction' as two polls show support cratering
- Amid Reform threat, Tory candidate says he agrees with Farage on most issues
- Most people back NHS funding going up - even with tax rises
- Starmer doesn't say where funding for NHS will come from
- What did IFS say about Labour's NHS promises
- Questions over Labour claim on '10 million NHS waiting list'
- Will Jennings:What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July
- Live reporting by Ben Bloch and (earlier)Tim Baker
Election essentials
- Check parties' manifesto pledges:Conservatives|Greens|Labour|Lib Dems|Plaid Cymru
- Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
- Campaign Heritage:Memorable moments from elections gone by
- Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
- Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans
Tories could be left with just 72 seats, vast new MRP poll suggests
The bad news keeps on coming for Rishi Sunak, with new polls showing support for the Conservative Party dropping through the floor.
A vast new MRP poll shows the Tories could be left with just 72 seats - while Labour could win a majority of 262 seats.
This poll is of 22,000 people, conducted by Survation, and it uses a method that allows the pollster to predict the result in each individual constituency.
The result would see the Tories left with less than half the number they won in their worst election in 1906, which was 156.
The only good news is that it still would leave the Tories as the main opposition party, with Reform winning just seven seats, and the Lib Dems 56.
It shows:
- Labour: 456 seats
- Tories: 72 seats
- Lib Dems: 56 seats
- Reform UK: 7 seats
- Plaid Cymru: 2 seats
- Green Party: 1 seat
A second poll published in the last hour shows support for the Tories has dropped four points in the last week.
In fact, it is the lowest vote share recorded for the Conservative Party since May 2019 - the dying days of the Theresa May premiership.
The Savanta poll of 2,045 people for the Sunday Telegraph also shows that Reform UK has risen by three points - and support for Labour has jumped as well.
The full results are:
- Labour: 46% (+2)
- Tories: 21% (-4)
- Reform UK: 13% (+3)
- Lib Dems: 11% (+2)
- SNP: 2% (-1)
- Other: 3% (-1)
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said in a statement: "Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party."
The Conservative candidates ditching the Tory brand
By Tom Cheshire, Megan Harwood-Baynes, Mary Poynter, online campaign team
How bad is the Conservative brand?
Bad enough for dozens of its own candidates to avoid using it, according to research from Sky's Online Campaign Team and Who Targets Me.
We looked at the adverts published on Facebook and Instagram by 521 Labour and Conservative candidates from 1 May until 12 June.
Of these, 376 adverts contained official branding (logos and colours), 104 had some form of partial branding, and 41 had no branding at all.
And the vast majority of those with no branding - 38 - were Conservative.
Read more here:
Watch: Highlights of The Battle for No 10 - Sky's leaders' special event
On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer faced a grilling from Sky's political editor Beth Rigbyand our live audience in Grimsby on their plans for government.
The two men were questioned on their pledges to the electorate, their trustworthiness, their records, and whether they are suited to lead the country as it faces challenges on many fronts.
If you were not able to watch the programme - fear not, because we are airing an hour-long highlights show live on Sky News now.
You can also watch live in the stream above, and at the link below.
You can watch Sky News free wherever you get your news.
Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.
Shadow minister - who was in Corbyn's top team - says he did not think he would win in 2019
Sir Keir Starmer came under fire this week for repeatedly dodging a question from Sky's Beth Rigbyabout if he really though Jeremy Corbyn would've made a great PM, which he said in 2019, and instead repeated that he didn't think they would actually win.
Labour shadow minister Andrew Gwynne was national campaign coordinator under Mr Corbyn, and we ask if he thought Mr Corbyn would win.
He replies: "We didn't win the election, we were defeated. I will always campaign for a Labour government because any Labour government, I believe, is better suited to government.
"But look, we didn't win, and you have to listen to the electorate."
Pushed on the question, he replies: "I saw what the opinion polls were saying. I heard what the focus groups were saying, and I knew that it would be a very difficult ask for Jeremy Corbyn to be the prime minister.
"But I'm a Labour MP. I support the Labour leader."
Labour say they 'can't wave a magic wand to fix social care'
Next on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue, we are speaking to Labour's shadow minister for social care, Andrew Gwynne, and we start by asking where the money will come from for their plans to reform social care.
The plan itself, he explains, it to give staff a "fair pay agreement" and creating a "national care service".
"This is a decade-long plan to reform social care into a system that wraps around the needs of the individual in a way that, quite frankly, social care services don't at the moment."
On where the money will come from, he says for payment of staff, it will come from "the sector themselves", which will improve "recruitment and retention".
Additionally, he says that more money will come in "not least by improving and changing the way we do health care in England" which "means that we free up resources to ship people out of hospital and to spend that resource within the community".
"So it's not just about new money, it's about spending the money, the many billions of pounds that we spend on health and care within a hospital setting, when actually better care and better outcomes can be provided within the home setting."
Challenged on the fact that he seems to be proposing to just move things around, rather than invest, he replied: "I can't wave a magic wand with the social care system that we would likely inherit and fix it overnight."
But he wants to make sure the workforce feels "valued" through pay, stopping the care system being a "postcode lottery", and making it a "genuine partnership between local and national government".
Tory candidate blasts Johnson's 'liberal attitude' - as he defends 14 years of Tory government
Finally,we ask Tory candidate Sir Philip Davies if Boris Johnson is the source of many of the problems the party is facing, given that he once labelled him the most left-wing PM since Harold Wilson.
He points to the high net migration figures as evidence of Mr Johnson's "liberalattitude towards immigration", and praises, Rishi Sunak for having "radically changed" the rules, which he says will bring numbers down.
Sir Philip criticises lockdowns during the COVID pandemic, which he labels "socialism", and says that policy, which resulted in things like the furlough scheme, are why taxes are so high now.
He also labels Mr Johnson a "fanatic for net zero", and praises Mr Sunak for rolling back those policies.
He goes on to say that they've had three global disasters to deal with during their 14 years in office - the financial crisis, the COVID pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.
"Not many governments have three once in a century issues to deal with over the last 14 years," he says.
"And I don't believe that the Labour Party would have dealt with them any better, frankly."
But this is an "election about the future", and the job of the Tory party is to "point out that actually people will be a lot better off with a Conservative government than they will be with the disaster of Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner introducing their socialist manifesto".
Tory candidate says Farage is 'massaging his ego' and 'helping Starmer build big majority'
Next, we askTory candidate Sir Philip Davies how worried he is about the threat from Nigel Farage's Reform UK after a YouGov poll this week showed them polling higher than the Tories for the first time.
Sir Philip replies that it was "one poll", and says YouGov is an outlier compared to other pollsters.
"In fact, you get to the point where you think that YouGovare a campaigning organisation masquerading as a polling company, to be perfectly honest - so far out are they from other people."
He goes on to say that he is among the many people who agree with what Mr Farage says.
"If you sat me and him down in your studio next to each other, you'd probably find that we wouldn't be disagreeing on many issues."
But he picks holes in the Reform UK leader's statements, saying that on one hand is claiming to be the real opposition to Labour, while on the other stating that they might just win two seats.
"That shows what the situation really is - it's that voting Reform is voting for Keir Starmer to be prime minister with a big majority."
The job of the Tory party, he says, is to "persuade Conservative voters not to be seduced by this sort of Farage mania".
Sir Philip says it's "crazy" that Mr Farage is not in the Tory party, saying he would like to see him join.
"All Nigel Farage is doing at this election, and I'm sure it's doing his ego - which is already the size of a small [planet] a lot of good - but all he's doing, aside from massaging that ego, he's helping Keir Starmer build as big a majority as possible in parliament."
'Tough' few weeks, Tory candidate admits - but says some criticism of Sunak 'unfair'
The first guest on tonight's edition of Politics Hub With Ali Fortescueis Tory candidate Sir Philip Davies.
We start by asking how the Conservative campaign is going in light of recent disastrous polling, he replies: "It's been a tough few weeks."
But he says he is finding on the doorstep that "a lot of people haven't made their minds up".
"I think it's probably fair to say they're quite disillusioned with politicians generally."
He says there is "no great desire" to see Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street, so "there's a lot of votes up for grabs".
Sir Philip rejects any assertion that the struggle is the fault of Rishi Sunak, although did concede that there have been some "unfortunate incidents".
"I think some of the criticism he's had that's been over-the-top and unfair, to be perfectly honest," he says, and adds that the Labour leader "seems to serenely go on without any real challenge from the media".
Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue is live
Our daily politics showPolitics Hubis live now on Sky News.
The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.
Joining Ali tonight is Andrew Gwynne, Labour's shadow social care minister, as the party focusses its campaigning today on fixing the NHS.
She will also hear from Conservative candidatePhilip Daviesas the party continues to face an uphill struggle in the polls.
And David Gauke, former Tory justice secretary, will give his take on the future of the party.
On Ali's panel tonight are:
- John Rentoul, chief political commentator for The Independent;
- Mo Hussein, former Downing Street chief press officer.
Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.
WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.
Watch: The highlights of the Sky News leaders' event
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer faced a grilling from our political editor Beth Rigbyand our live studio audience in Grimsby this week.
The Labour leader went first, being questioned on U-turns, his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, and his proposals for government if he wins the election
The Conservative leader was held to account on his record, his progress at meeting his five pledges, and his plans for the next five years, should he win on 4 July.
If you missed the event and want to catch up, you can watch it in full here, or watch the highlights below.
